The move above $3,200 was the key technical development here. Before that, Ethereum had been stuck in a frustrating range, testing investor patience. Now it’s carving out higher lows on the daily chart—a classic bullish signal. The 50-day moving average, which had been trending downward since early January, is starting to flatten out. That’s worth noting because it suggests the medium-term trend may be shifting.
Volume has backed the price move, which matters. Daily trading volumes are up about 35% from last week, with strong participation during Asian and European sessions. That geographic spread suggests broad-based interest rather than a single market segment driving the move.
What’s interesting is Ethereum’s performance relative to Bitcoin. While BTC has been range-bound, ETH has outperformed significantly on both daily and weekly timeframes. Some analysts think this marks the beginning of capital rotating from Bitcoin into altcoins—a pattern that historically precedes strong altcoin runs.
The technical picture is improving across multiple timeframes. ETH closed above its 200-day moving average for the first time in weeks. The MACD just generated a bullish crossover. These are the kinds of setups that have preceded Ethereum’s major rallies over the past couple of years.
Support now sits at $3,200—the old resistance level that bulls will defend. Below that, $3,100 and $3,000 offer additional layers where buying has clustered historically.
On the upside, $3,500 is the next significant barrier, followed by the psychological $4,000 level. The daily RSI is at 68, approaching overbought territory but not yet extreme. There’s room to run.
Exchange reserves continue declining, meaning holders are moving ETH off exchanges into self-custody. That’s conviction behavior, not selling behavior. Wallets holding 100 to 10,000 ETH have been accumulating consistently for two weeks—whales loading up.
Funding rates have turned positive after an extended negative period. Open interest in Ethereum futures is at multi-week highs, though not yet at dangerous leverage levels.
Institutional interest remains a factor. CME Ethereum futures open interest stays elevated, suggesting sophisticated participants view current prices as strategically important. The staking yield continues attracting yield-focused strategies that previously had limited crypto options.
What to watch next: the $3,500 resistance zone is critical. A sustained break above could trigger short covering and momentum buying. Failure to hold $3,200 would suggest this is another failed breakout.
Macroeconomic factors matter too. Upcoming Federal Reserve announcements and inflation data will impact risk assets, crypto included.
The $3,200 level is the pivot point. Hold above it with sustained volume, and $3,500 and beyond become realistic targets. Break below it, and we’re retesting lower support.
Risk management matters. Conditions can shift quickly in either direction. The current environment rewards patience with clear levels for entries on pullbacks or additions on confirmations.
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